HTPB 22.12

 

The Shoes got one step closer to getting a first round bye and ended Ogre's Death Squad's season which should have dead long ago.  CJ Stroud continues to lead the revamped Zapatistas.  LZ owns the league's longest winning streak at 4 (tied with HC) and would need to lose out or lose one with terrible point totals to miss out on that first round bye. It seems like the next truly meaningful game LZ will play is going to be in week 16.  Will he still be in synch after such a long layoff?  ODS goes back to the drawing board yet again.

Bay-Bay's and The Collegians in a week loaded with teams getting fat on points, decided to watch their weight.  The Collegians have managed to win their 7 game having scored less than 100 in 4 of them.  Tua gave Bay-Bay's the blackest of Fridays managing only 8 points while Tyreke brought in 20.  The Collegians were "led" with 19 points from Goff.  But regardless of how ugly it has been The Collegians likely only need to win one more game against IS or RM to clinch a playoff berth.  

Big Nasty Express ended Tinker Stinkers playoff streak.  The last member of the league to start their career with a really long playoff streak quit immediately after the one year that they missed hopefully history repeats itself
The BNE despite the overwhelming victory is not completly out of the woods as far as the toiletries and neither are Tinker Stinkers.  Both still have an outside chance to head home with a trophy this season like the winners that they are. 

Lee Corso has a message for both Bricklayers playoff bid and The Italian Stallions quest for yet another Toilet Trophy season.
Jalen Hurts and CMC combined for 69 points. Nice.  IS managed to put up 118 despite a double goose egg.  Bricklayers needs to find another victory or against Dollars and Tinker Stinkers to keep his season alive.  The Stallions will battle two teams that have not been scoring as of later BB and TC and likely needs both to avoid their record setting last place finish.  

Stabmyballzrepeatedly stabbed Blue Gatorade to the tune of a league high 151 points.  Blue Gatorade put up a Rudyesque 135 points in the loss.  The results currently have both teams in the top 7 but both still need to do more work to make it to the promised land.  Dak has been playing a ridicuoous level, as SMBR has been raking in the points as of late.  Especially helpful when he starts a full active lineup and ignores Big' E's super jealousy.  Kevin seen here taking the call   Blue Gatorade had 4 players break 20 but it wasn't enough as he takes the hard luck loss.  

He did it ladies and gentlemen.  Rush 'n Missiles has hit 100 two weeks in a row.  Josh Allen led RM to a victory over Dollars in one of his stinker weeks.  That is the first time he has scored 100 two weeks in a row all season.  Some might say he did that earlier this season, but I say nay, RM hit 100, four weeks in a row, which is quite clearly not twice, ya big dummies. Joe 100'aire himself, Cory went through for the following data

Through 12 weeks the number of times a team scored 100

LZ 9

BG 7

HC 7

BL 7

$$ 6

RM 7

TC 5

ODS 6

EBD 8

SMBR 8

BB 7

TS 4

BNE 6

IS 4

Times opponent scored 100

LZ 6

BG 5

HC 5

BL 8

$$ 5

RM 6

TC 5

ODS 7

EBD 9

SMBR 7

BB 6

TS 7

BNE 6

IS 10

So looking at that everybody is pretty bunched up. What jumps out to me is that Italian Stallions is the low man in scoring and high man in getting scored against.  Also The Collegians somehow causes his matchup to suck most weeks. 

For the fourth week in a row, Hardcore Cabinet pulls a win out of his ass on Monday night when he should have lost. HC was led by the returning Kyren Willaims' 35 points.  Eh Bid Dude was once again unlucky going up against Hardcore on a week that Armani Cooper Kupp scored a combined 5 points.  So unlucky to play HC on a week when his defense outscores HC by 18.  Rudy finds his back against the wall for a playoff spot needing to most likely win out against SMBR and TS.  Hardcore appears to be playoff bound as all projections seem to show 7 wins as the cut off line.  I haven't looked at all of the schedule possibilities for the rest of the year, it's 7 am.  You'll see later, skynet says HC is in.

#1 Seed is LZ's to lose with a 95% chance.  The only one who could catch them is 5% from Hardcore Cabinet.  

Playoff Odds has LZ and HC in.

The rest: RM 95, BG 92, BL 85, TC 70, SMBR 69, $$ 38, EBD 33, ODS 14, TS 2

Toilet odds

IS 80, BNE 5, TS 10, BB 5

1. LZ 97-59

2. BL 95-61

3. EBD 92-64

4. RM 90-66

5. SMBR 85-71

6. BG 84-72

7. BNE 77-78-1

8. BB 75-81

9. $$ 72-84

10 HC 72-84

11. TC 64-91-1

12. TS 64-92

13. ODS 64-92

14. IS 60-96

Hardcore Cabinet is a whopping 9 spots ahead of where he should be, EBD is 7 lower than he should be.

SMBR goes 7-0 to win the week.  Which is crazy considering he made his picks before week 1.  EBD is last this week with a record of 2-5.  The Collegians hold the overall lead, while Dollars is last overall.  Pick week 13 here. 

Game of the Week

(Rematch week, winner of week 1 in CAPS)

2 Hardcore Cabinet vs 4 BLUE GATORADE

 ODS vs rm

BB vs bne

bl vs TS
dollars vs LZ

EBD vs smbr

is vs TC

The season is hitting the home stretch, only two weeks left.  You is going to enter the chaos of the playoffs and who will get to have more time on their hands to use productively in some way, I'm sure.

HTPB 23.11

 

The entire United States was caught in the crossfire of this international battle.  Much like their sexual preferences, this was a battle of tag teams.  Tua and Tyreke out Chinese finger cuffed Stroud and Dell, 43-38.  But unfortunately for Bay-Bay's direct eye contact was made and the rest of his team couldn't keep the scoring up, leading to a Los Zapatistas victory.  Achane came back for the Shoes but couldn't finish. The shoes were still able to pull out the win and remain on top of the standings.  Bay-Bay's can still salvage this season and make the playoffs for the first time, especially with a soft remaining schedule of the Goons minus ODS.  

How does this keep happening to Roy.  What was he done to deserve all of this. He is a victim.  Rush 'n Missiles had their first good week other than the week that he scored 141 or the week he scored 135, and if you forget about the three other weeks that he scored more than 100.  So other than that, RM comes out of nowhere and gets a lot of points.    I mean RM was only 4th in the power rankings heading into this week.  Who could have seen such an outcome coming?  How could RM have had a good game?  Especially after the previous time that he has had a good game?  Normally I have to spend a good portion of this blog refuting things Roy says in an emotional outburst, but he must have clarity during over night feedings because his Kenneth Walker getting his average instead of being injured was correct.  He would have won by a point in that scenario.  

Blue Gatorade pounded Italian Stallions, as it appears that the IS have quit on their coach after being eliminated from the playoffs.  The Stallions got the double goose egg from the Titans and Gabe Davis.  Trevor Lawrence outscored everyone on the Stallions not named Hurts or McCaffery by himself.  Dom is so at home in last place, he has taken up permanent residency on the toilet trophy.  Blue Gatorade has blossomed ever since he traded Jefferson away going 5-2 since unloading the dead weight of the number 1 overall draft pick.

Hardcore Cabinet and The Collegians each started off a run after conceding victory.  Hardcore Cabinet won their 3 straight Monday Night Miracle and has won 6 out of 7 games.  The Collegians were giving the Chiefs a pregame pep talk on what they needed to pull off the victory.  Hardcore Cabinet was able to get the win despite only getting 88 points which would have only beaten 3 teams in the whole league.  The Collegians couldn't pull off a victory Cooper Kupp leaving injured very early.  The Collegians were unable to get their FOURTH win of the year while scoring under 100 points.  

Sliding in the standings

Jeremy's Brother has fallen on hard times having not broken 100 or gotten a win in a month and has gone from first place to 12th in record time. Dollars has harnessed the power of Josh Dobbs to pull above .500.  Dollars has managed to not have an opponent score more than 107 in week and has turned that into 6-5 record.  JB tried trading for Patrick Mahomes but it was too little too late to help a lineup that has not been producing.  JB's amazing streak of never having missed the playoffs is on life support.  Dollars currently has 4 of his playoff predictions in the top 7 with one already locked in. 

AJ Brown decided to leave early for Thanksgiving and Bricklayers were unable to defeat SMBR.  Saquon Barkley finally lived up to his draft position and Kevin was able to use that keep his playoff hopes alive.  Bricklayers has despite the 6-5 can still rocket up the standings with their high point total and a softer remaining schedule of IS, JB, $$ to end the season.  Or maybe it's the beginning of an epic collapse.  Although with his point total, BL most likely only needs to win one more game to get into the playoffs.  SMBR hasn't scored less than 110 in the last month.  Watch out if SMBR can find a few wins in their last three against BG, EBD, and ODS.

Ogre's Death Squad has continued their unlucky rise up the standings.  ODS despite having the least points in the league is somehow is only missing out on the playoffs via tiebreaker at the moment.  A difficult schedule of LZ, RM, and SMBR makes a playoff bid still very unlikely.  Both BNE and Joe Burrow's seaons were mercy killed this week.  Burrow fell only a scant 35 tuddies short of BNE's preseason prediction. BNE reacquired Brock Purdy like a boomerang.   Despite the poor seasons for both of these squads.  They aren't even the worst goon.   Congratulations Italian Stallions on getting under that low low bar.  Limbo champ, Baby!!

1. BL 90-53

2. EBD 88-55

3. LZ 88-55

4. RM 79-64

5. BB 75-68

6. BG 74-69

7. SMBR 72-71

8. $$ 71-72

9. HC 66-77

10. BNE 65-77-1

11. TC 62-80-1

12. JB 61-82

13. ODS 56-87

14. IS 53-90

EBD has been the most unlucky 7 spots short.  His brother is second at 6 spots.  The luckiest has been HC 6 spots higher than he should while ODS is 5 spots ahead. 

SMBR won the pick em with a 5-2 record.  Last place at 2-5 belongs to BB, JB, and BG.  Get your picks in here.  Remember that with the Thanksgiving holiday you should get your picks in early.  We have been perfect but usually lose some this week with the holiday. 

Los Zapatistas has clinched.  BNE joins IS in the eliminated trash heap.

 

Playoff odds: HC 90%, BG 90%, BL 85%, RM 72%, $$ 63%, EBD 50%, TC 44%, SMBR 32%, ODS 33%, BB 28%, JB 8%

#1 seed: LZ 70%, BG 14%, BL 5% HC 3%, $$ 3%

Toilet Trophy: IS 88% BNE 9%, JB 1%

Game of the Week 

#1 Los Zapatistas vs #8 Ogre's Death Squad

HC vs EBD

BB vs TC

BG vs SMBR

BL vs IS

$$ vs RM

Toilet Game of the Week

#12 Jeremy's Brother vs #13 Big Nasty Express

(The winner is mathematically saved from Toiletries)

I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving.  I am thankful for this league, you guys, and those views and the support of my sponsors. 

HTPB 23.10

 

The self proclaimed Rudy took a beating at the hands of the Josh Dobbs led Dollars squad.  This time Eh Rude Dude couldn't overcome the unfair hardship of having trading for studs and depleting his depth making it difficult to win during the byes.  The league has opened an investigation into who did this to EBD and hope to find the culprit soon.    Trick or Treat Dollars brought a treat this week so watch out for the 82 point stink bomb that is inevitably getting laid next week.  

SMBR brought the pain to Bay-Bay's this week. SMBR was raking in the points all over the place. Huge games from Dak Prescott, Keenan Allen and the 49ers.  Bay-Bay's knew they had an uphill battle without his Dolphins but didn't think the uphill battle was Mount Logan.  The Dolphins replacements of Taylor Heineke and the reanimated corpse of Michael Thomas could only combine for 12 points.  Michael Thomas had the same number of receptions as he did bricks thrown through windshields this week.

Big Nasty Express made a few trades recently but it appears to be shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic as BNE took another L this week.  The Collegians used a well balanced attack from all over their roster to fend off the limp wristed slaps of BNE this week.  Derrick Henry has been traded twice this season for a reason apparently.  He added a whopping 3 points for his new squad.  BNE with some smooth negotiations to get those extra 3 points this week.

The Bricklayers were able to overcome losing AJ Brown and Swift with the Eagles on bye mainly behind the effort of Justin Herbert and TJ Hockenson, rubbing both their combined 57 points and long flowing hair in Max's face.  Trevor Lawrence's couldn't even get a full point and Travis Etienne's touchdown streak ended with a thud.  Blue Gatorade falls down from their lofty perch of second place and Bricklayers kindly takes over that spot.    Bricklayers is leading the league with a 92% success rate in starting the right guys.

CMC's NFL record TD streak and Dom's playoff chances have something in common this week as they both were ended.  Ogre's Death Squad has somehow managed to pull to 5-5 and has a chance to actually make the playoffs after being the betting favorite to win the toilet trophy.  Quite the turn around.  Ogre's Death Squad has waited all year to get Kyler Murray back out on the field and score 15 points or 83% of what Jordan Love got for Italian Stallions.  But keep that chin up Dom, your schedule has been your killer.  If you had any other schedule in the league you would have a better record.  Topping off at 5-5.  If JB played your schedule he would be 0-10.  (This is a fact and not just mocking Jason)

Rush' n Missiles put up league low 66 points this week and quickly heeled to the alpha of the pack and presented his under carriage to his boss, The Shoes.  RM's TE, both slashes dude, kicker, and defense combined for less than 20 points.  There hasn't been a bottom half pack less of a punch, since RM's bottom half.  The Shoes lead the league in wins and has been on a roll since JB traded him his best player, a weak schedule.  LZ has only had one opponent break 10 in the last 6 weeks and he lost that one.  

This game had to be rewritten this morning after a Monday Night Miracle.  The top two players for Hardcore Cabinet were the legendary Javonte Williams and Latavius Murray.  It was a garbage matchup as neither team was in the top half of the league in points. JB should have never traded his weak schedule to the Shoes.  He has only one win this season over a team that has scored over 100 points.  How he really came up short, was he last minute stinker tinkering were he released Jake Moody.  Had he left the 49ers kicker in the lineup, he would have been victorious.  Think about that kick in the balls all week.

We are getting down to the nitty gritty this season and Skynet has sifted through the data and here are the results.  

#1 seed is basically down to Los Zapatistas with 47% and Bricklayers with 27%.  The next highest person is HC with 6%.

Playoff odds

LZ 97% BL 94% HC 81% BG 75% EBD 75% TC 64% RM 54% $$ 53% JB 21% ODS 19% SMBR 18% BNE 3% IS 0

Toilet Bowl

IS 76% BNE 10% SMBR 5%

1. BL 84-46

2. EBD 81-49

3. LZ 75-55

4. RM 68-62

5. SMBR 64-66

6. BNE 64-66

7. BG 64-66

8. HC 63-67

9. BB 63-67

10. $$ 62-68

11. TC 61-69

12. JB 56-74

13. IS 53-77

14. ODS 52-78

It is insane how tightly bunched the middle of the league is this year. It feels like the closest it has ever been.  The luckiest team has been HC jumping 5 spots in the standings while BNE is 7 spots unlucky.  The middle is so bunched that if HC or BB had scored 2 more points in any week they could be 5th.  

This week The Collegians graduated Summa Cum Laud with a 6-1 record to take the overall season lead.  While $$, RM, SMBR, and IS all came in with 3-4 records at the bottom.  SMBR remains at the bottom of the season long standings. Pick week 11 here.

Game of the Week 

#3 Hardcore Cabinet vs #5 The Collegians

(Only game between current playoff teams)

BB vs LZ

BG vs IS

BL vs SMBR

$$ vs JB

EBD vs RM

Toilet Game of the Week

#11 ODS vs #13 BNE

(Only game between non current playoff teams)

Good luck to all in this coming week.  Trade deadline is Saturday. 

HTPB 23.9

 

Welcome to HTPB Willow Leigh, congrats Stephanie and Rudy.  

(Stroud was one off on his prediction of Geno's points)

The Italian Stallions had CMC on bye so their team was DOA.  With Jalen Huluhaslivesports on bye next week, it feels like the Loins are headed for the toiletries.  The Shoes made a wrong QB choice by fortyfuckingseven and not only still won but beat the dandruff off of the Loins.  Christian Watson, Gabe Davis and the Giants combined for under 2 points.  Dom was done for when he set his lineup.  The Zaps march on to be the first back to back champion in league history. 

Blue Gatorade went to Canada to hand Dan a beat down.  Dan got to be a uncle to a new niece and then cried it in his match-up. He wanted to stay to drink and gamble but he's only 18 so he just had some poutine and got some of that sweet government healthcare to get the bits of bush pulled out of his ass.  Blue Gatorade lost his Jags and didn't seem to have a chance but the Dolphins went to Germany and forgot to bring their offense.  Tua and Tyreke played like shizer.  Don't look now but Blue Gatorade is 6-3.

He has overcome a season ending injury to usually injured JK Dobbins and lost a wide receiver to injury for this week and it's about time we give EBD his flowers. He has overcome the adversity of having picked and traded for more running backs that he can play.  He's overcome the adversity of not being able to trade one of those Travis Kelce type TE's that everyone has.  I ask you going forward to remember EBD's struggle and use that to motivate you in your life.  You are in charge of the change in your life.  Because if he can overcome an injury to JK Dobbins, what have you done?  

On a snowy Halloween evening I stood on Kevin's porch with a check for him.  My messages went ignored by both he and his wife.  I stood there as the snow fell down for ten minutes, hoping for an answer.  I knew I played Kevin in HTPB and Lindsay in wordle this week.  In my super villain origin, I decided that much like Brickwood in the sauna with the old men, I swore I must beat these two Johnsons.  Despite a $5 winning performance from Dak and Jacobs, Hardcore Cabinet was able to pull out the .11 victory over SMBR and the double overtime wordle victory over Lindsay.  

                                     New sideline reporter, Cory, interviewing Jeremy's Brother

Rush n' Missiles picked up the high score of the week and may have a future as a sideline reporter.  The team was lead by great performances by the Chargers defense, Josh Allen, and Rachaad White.  JB's week began on Thursday with talking smack about Rashee Rice and ended with the meat sweats and little else.  The Schedule Gods are starting to put JB's squad where the math says he should be.  Can JB find a QB for this week?  

Big E holding on to avoid the Toilet

Ogre's Death Squad was able to break 100 and Bricklayers hymen, pulling off the upset victory.  Justin Herbert was tripled up by Derek Carr who doesn't even get to play QB on the goal line.  Bricklayers lost Hockensen and Fairborn to injuries.  ODS has a chance to play spoiler the rest of the way with Kyler Murray coming back but the new Call of Duty is released Friday so it's probably not a sound plan.  Bricklayers can take solace in the fact that despite only putting up 90 points it was the best he could do with a whopping 5 points on his bench.  

This week's shit monster game was between The Collegians and $$$.  The Collegians were less shitty and their start three tight ends strategy was "successful" averaging 5 points a piece.  He'll have to think of a new plan with Dallas Goedert breaking his arm.  $$'s needs a prescription for lithium for his bipolar team.  He has broken 120 3 times including a 183 point game and has failed to break 90 4 times.    Jamar Chase's back injury may loom large over the rest of Dollars' season.

The computer model projects the following playoff odds.

#1 seed: LZ 27%, BG 19%, BL 18%, EBD 10%, RM 10%

Make the playoffs: LZ 91%, BG 87%, BL 81%, EBD 81%, RM 81%, HC 65%, BB 63%, JB 40%, $$ 33%, TC 32%, BNE 19%, ODS 6%, SMBR 5%, IS 3%

Toilet Bowl: IS 35%, SMBR 28%, ODS 20%, BNE 10%

Power Rankings

1. EBD 73-44

2. BL 72-45

3. RM 68-49

4. LZ 68-49

5. BG 63-54

6. BNE 62-55

7. BB 58-59

8. HC 57-60

9. $$ 53-64

10. JB 52-65

11. SMBR 51-66

12. IS 50-67

13. TC 50-67

14. ODS 42-75

It appears that ODS is quite simply in a class by himself.  The muddle in the middle has a few weeks to figure itself out.  

It was a rough week in pick 'em.  TC, BNE, and $$ were the only pickers above .500 with 4-3 records.  BB and IS went 1-6 to bring up the rear.  Steve has pulled into a tie with Jason for first overall.  You can make week 10 picks here. 

Remember the trade deadline is November 18th.  Good luck this week.